UK AI minister says AI economic boost estimate is far below £400bn

In short: The UK government’s AI minister said the widely repeated claim that AI could add £400 billion to the economy came mainly from a Google-funded report, and the government’s own estimate is much lower.

What happened

UK officials have spent about two years citing a figure that artificial intelligence, or AI (computer systems that can do tasks like writing, sorting, or summarizing), could add £400 billion to the UK economy. The number was often used to argue that AI could bring big benefits, even as people worried about job losses.

Last week, UK AI minister Kanishka Narayan answered a parliamentary question and put different numbers on the record. He said AI adoption and investment in data could add £55 billion to £140 billion by 2030, with a central estimate of about £120 billion. He also called the estimate “hugely uncertain,” meaning it depends on guesses about how fast AI is adopted and how well it works in practice.

Narayan said the £400 billion figure was taken from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by consultancy Public First, now called PF Global. WIRED reported that government departments and agencies used the £400 billion number for almost two years, even though ministers had the lower estimate from at least November 2025.

Why it matters

Big public numbers can shape trust and spending decisions. If AI is like a new tool in a workshop, the benefits depend on how many people use it and whether it fits their daily work. Critics, including Labour MP Chi Onwurah and the Ada Lovelace Institute, said the government should be clearer about where figures come from, test them, and avoid overstating what AI can deliver.

Source: Wired