Study finds no unusual unemployment for recent US college grads in 2026

In short: A new research paper finds no clear sign that AI has raised unemployment for recent US college graduates so far.

What's going on

Economics researchers at CESifo in Munich released a working paper looking at whether AI is hurting new college graduates in the US job market. They focused on people ages 22 to 25 who have a bachelor’s degree and are not in graduate school.

The researchers used the US Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, a large monthly survey that helps track jobs and unemployment. They looked at patterns from 2022 onward, since unemployment often rises in the summer when many graduates start job hunting.

They found that summer 2026 unemployment for recent graduates was 7.3 percent. That was within the range seen in recent years, from 6.3 percent in 2022 to 7.8 percent in 2024. The authors said there is “no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring” of recent graduates.

The paper also compared recent graduates with two other groups, non-college graduates of the same age and older college graduates ages 30 to 49. It also grouped jobs by “AI exposure,” meaning roles where today’s AI tools can do more of the routine tasks (like a helper that can draft text or summarize documents). In most comparisons, differences between groups were not meaningful in statistical terms.

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This does not settle the debate. A recent Stanford study using ADP payroll data suggested entry-level hiring is weaker in jobs seen as more affected by AI. The CESifo authors also warn that if AI use at work keeps rising, the graduating classes of 2027 and later could see more impact.

Source: Arstechnica