Stanford study finds AI is reducing entry level jobs for young workers

In short: A Stanford economics study finds AI-related job declines are showing up most clearly in entry level work for people aged 22 to 25.

What's going on

Stanford University economists updated their report, “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence,” using newer payroll data. They compared jobs that are more “exposed” to AI with jobs that are less exposed. “Exposed” here means the work includes tasks that AI tools can do or help with, like drafting text or sorting information.

Across the whole workforce, the researchers found little to no clear difference in overall employment between the most and least AI-exposed jobs. But the picture changes for younger workers. Employment levels for workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations were 19 percent lower than their peers in less exposed fields, up from a 13 percent gap in last year’s version of the study.

Looking at changes since 2022, the study found employment for 22 to 25 year olds fell by about 11 percent in the top 40 percent of AI-impacted jobs. Over the same period, employment for young workers grew by 10 percent in the 60 percent of jobs judged least impacted by AI. The researchers say the gap seems to come mostly from lower hiring, not from more firings or people quitting.

The study also distinguishes between AI used to replace tasks versus AI used to assist workers (like a calculator for office work). Jobs where AI use is more replacement-focused, such as some accounting and receptionist tasks, showed the biggest entry level declines.

What to watch

Lead author Erik Brynjolfsson warned this could mean the job market stays steady overall while the “on-ramp” for new workers narrows. A key question is whether more education and training will help young workers move into roles where AI is more likely to assist than replace.

Source: Arstechnica