Eurasia Group names the US the top global risk in its 2026 outlook

In short: Eurasia Group’s 2026 risk outlook lists a “U.S. political revolution,” driven by President Trump’s efforts to reshape the political system, as the top global risk.

What happened

Eurasia Group, a political risk research firm led by analyst Ian Bremmer, released its 2026 “Top Risks” outlook. It puts the United States at the top of its global risk list, under the label “U.S. political revolution.”

In this framing, Trump is not treated as just another domestic political figure. Bremmer argues the US is “actively dismantling its own global order,” meaning it is pulling apart rules and relationships it helped build with other countries after World War II (like taking bolts out of a structure it once designed).

The report says the risk is bigger than a normal policy fight. It describes Trump’s approach as trying to capture government power, weaken checks and balances (the built-in limits that stop one branch of government from doing whatever it wants), and use institutions against perceived enemies.

Bremmer has also said the US has become the “biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty” worldwide. “Geopolitical” here simply means how countries interact, including alliances, trade, and conflict.

Why it matters

When the US becomes less predictable, other countries, companies, and markets often react. That can affect everyday life through prices, jobs tied to global trade, and the risk of wider international disputes. Eurasia Group also lists other major 2026 risks, including weaker central authority in Europe, countries treating water like a tool of pressure, and AI interacting with weak governance.

Source: NYTimes