Eurasia Group says Trump is the top global risk driver in 2026

In short: A new risk outlook from Eurasia Group argues that President Trump’s push to reshape US power is the biggest driver of global risk in 2026.

What's going on

Eurasia Group, a political risk firm led by analyst Ian Bremmer, says the top global risk for 2026 is what it calls a “US political revolution.” In plain terms, it means the firm sees major change and instability inside US politics as a bigger risk than any single foreign enemy.

Bremmer’s argument is not that President Trump is the only problem facing the world. It is that Trump’s effort to reshape how the US government works has become the main source of international uncertainty.

The report says the United States has become a principal threat to the current global order because of actions it links to Trump, including weakening “checks” on presidential power. Checks are the guardrails that limit what one person can do (like having referees in a game). It also warns about using government agencies more directly against political enemies, and about capturing more of the government’s machinery to serve the president.

What to watch

Bremmer also says this makes the US a less predictable partner for allies. If other countries think US policy can swing quickly, or that US institutions are being weakened, they may trust US promises less and make their own plans. That can make it harder to manage global crises, since many of the usual “rules of the road” depend on countries believing the US will act consistently.

Source: NYTimes