Anthropic IPO plans put AI spending and profits in the spotlight

In short: Anthropic is planning an IPO after the US midterm elections, and investors are treating it as a major test of whether today’s heavy AI spending can pay off.

What's going on

Anthropic, the company behind the Claude chatbot, is preparing to go public. As of October 26, 2026, the IPO is expected after the US midterm elections. Investors have reportedly discussed a valuation near $1.5 trillion, which is below an earlier figure of about $2 trillion that had been floated.

This IPO matters beyond Anthropic because the company sits in the middle of a large web of partners. Amazon and Google both provide Anthropic with computing capacity, which is the rented horsepower needed to run AI models (like paying for electricity and engines, but for software). At the same time, they also compete with Anthropic in AI.

Those same platforms are also key sales channels. Amazon and Google handled 47% of Anthropic’s 2025 sales, about $2.16 billion, and collected roughly $351 million in distribution fees.

Anthropic’s spending commitments are also huge. Its confidential IPO filing says it has committed to at least $518 billion in spending over a decade with six partners. Reuters reported that more than $417 billion in long-term commitments had piled up by early 2026.

What to watch

The central question is whether growth can justify the cost. Anthropic reported $4.6 billion in revenue in 2025, but Reuters reported a $42 billion loss that year, plus more big infrastructure spending ahead. A strong IPO could lift confidence in other AI companies and the firms that supply them, while a weak one could add to doubts about whether all this spending will lead to future profits.

Source: NYTimes