Forecasts show the AI market growing fast, but some warn time is short

In short: Market forecasts keep projecting rapid growth for AI, even as some experts argue the easiest period for growth may be narrowing.

What's going on

Several market forecasts continue to put very large numbers on how much the AI industry could grow over the next decade. One projection estimates the global AI market could rise from about $758 billion in 2025 to about $4.2 trillion by 2035. Other forecasts suggest even higher totals by the early 2030s.

These forecasts often point to similar reasons for growth. One is more computing power, which is the hardware that runs AI (like giving a factory more machines so it can produce more). Another is more data, which is the raw material AI learns from (like giving a student more practice examples). Analysts also cite wider use of digital tools across businesses, plus heavy spending by large tech companies on research and development.

A fast-growing part of this story is “generative AI,” which is AI that can create new content such as text, images, or code (like an autocomplete tool that can write whole paragraphs). Many companies are trying to add these features to products people already use.

At the same time, recent commentary has highlighted that experts disagree on what is behind steep gains in AI-related business results, and many agree the window for rapid growth could be shrinking. The market forecasts cited above do not directly address that concern, and they tend to focus on optimistic projections rather than the risk that growth could slow.

What to watch

Watch for signs that real-world limits are starting to matter more, such as shortages of chips and data center space, rising costs to run AI systems, and tougher rules on data use. Also watch whether businesses keep paying for AI tools after early trials, or whether spending cools once the simplest uses are already taken.

Source: NYTimes