WTO raises 2026 goods trade forecast as AI hardware demand grows

In short: The World Trade Organization says booming demand for AI-related hardware helped global goods trade grow faster than it expected in 2026.

What's going on

The World Trade Organization, or WTO, updated its global trade outlook on October 8, 2026. It raised its forecast for world merchandise trade volume growth in 2026 to 3.9%, up from 1.9% in its March baseline.

The WTO said two things drove the improvement. First, supply chains, meaning the links that move parts and products around the world, adjusted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets tied to the Middle East conflict. Second, heavy spending on AI infrastructure increased demand for physical goods such as semiconductors, servers, and data-centre equipment, which are the machines and parts used to run AI systems.

The WTO put numbers on that AI boost. Trade in “AI-enabling goods” rose 67% year over year in the first half of 2026. Those goods made up 47% of global merchandise trade growth over that period. In a July review, the WTO had already reported that the value of AI-related goods trade was up more than 40% year over year in the first quarter.

What to watch

The WTO’s comments are about goods trade, not the whole economy. It said AI-related demand helped offset, meaning partly counter, the hit to goods trade from higher transport and energy costs. It also lowered its outlook for services trade growth to 3.3% in 2026 from 4.8%, pointing to pressure on areas like aviation, tourism, and transport.

Source: NYTimes