War game on solar geoengineering showed talks break down fast

In short: A London war game testing global rules for “dimming the sun” found that geopolitics can quickly overwhelm science and cooperation.

What's going on

A group of researchers ran a role-play simulation at Queen Mary University of London to see how the world might respond to solar radiation modification, also called solar geoengineering. This is a set of proposed methods to cool the planet by reflecting some sunlight back into space, like a giant volcanic eruption does naturally (volcano ash can cool Earth for a short time). One example is spraying tiny particles into the upper atmosphere.

The game was set up like an emergency United Nations committee. Players included foreign policy experts, scientists, military staff, and former officials, and they represented countries, companies, and nonprofits. The scenario ran across three time points, now, 2027, and 2028, with new events and partial information, similar to how real crises unfold.

According to accounts from WIRED reported by Ars Technica, the talks repeatedly collapsed. Players acting as the US and China said they could not accept restrictions that might put them behind a rival. Suspicion spiraled after a fake “intelligence report” suggested US activity near the Bering Strait, and later, a secretive plume event in the scenario raised fears that testing had already started.

The simulation also introduced a nonprofit that offered funding for monitoring, then was revealed to be backed by the fossil fuel industry. The move damaged the credibility of the scientific adviser in the room, and it further fractured trust.

What to watch

Real-world interest is rising, including private companies exploring the idea and governments publishing early position papers. The key question is whether countries can agree on basic rules, such as transparency, monitoring, and limits on outdoor tests, before competition pushes someone to act first.

Source: Arstechnica