Wall Street sees a possible fourth straight S&P 500 yearly gain in 2026

In short: The S&P 500 is on track for another up year in 2026, and some Wall Street forecasts now point to a rare four-year winning streak, but analysts also warn about growing risks.

What's going on

The S&P 500, a widely followed list of 500 large US companies, entered 2026 after three straight years of double-digit gains. Reports say it rose more than 25% in both 2023 and 2024, then gained 17.9% in 2025.

As of Aug. 11, 2026, one market note said the index was up about 13.4% for the year so far. If the index stays positive through the end of the year, it would extend the run to four straight years. Commentators note that this kind of long streak is uncommon in the index’s history, and different counts vary depending on how the streak is defined.

Some firms are also raising their targets. CFRA, a research firm, reportedly lifted its year-end 2026 target to 8,050 and its 12-month target to 8,650. In plain terms, that is like a coach predicting not only a winning season, but a strong finish that could set up another win the next year.

What to watch

Several reports say the rally has been driven heavily by a small group of large technology and AI-related stocks, which can be a risk if leadership narrows. Analysts also point to high valuations, meaning stock prices look expensive compared with company results. Earnings, or company profits, have been strong, but higher expectations can make markets more sensitive to bad news.

Source: NYTimes