U.S. and Gulf oil for security deal looks outdated after Hormuz closure

In short: The old U.S. Gulf bargain of steady oil in exchange for U.S. military protection is increasingly seen as obsolete after the Strait of Hormuz was shut.

What's going on

For decades, the U.S. relationship with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE was often described as “oil for security.” In simple terms, Gulf countries helped keep oil flowing to global markets, and the U.S. helped protect the region and key shipping lanes.

That idea has been badly shaken by recent events. In early March 2026, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz during a U.S. Israel war. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage that much of the Gulf’s oil and gas exports pass through (like a chokepoint bridge on a highway). The closure blocked exports and triggered what the source describes as the largest oil market disruption in history.

Trust had already been slipping. The U.S. did not stop or strongly deter several major attacks in recent years, including the 2019 strike on Saudi Aramco facilities at Abqaiq, a 2022 assault linked to Abu Dhabi’s airport, and a September 2025 Israeli strike on Doha. At the same time, the U.S. has produced far more oil at home, including shale oil, cutting its reliance on Gulf imports by about 80% compared to 20 years ago.

What to watch

Gulf leaders are not necessarily looking to replace the U.S. as a security partner, since no other country can match U.S. military scale in the region. But they are likely to push for clearer promises, and for cooperation that goes beyond oil, such as technology and investment. Another key question is whether U.S. bases will be seen as protection or as targets that bring risk.

Source: NYTimes