NOAA says US forecast accuracy has not broadly declined despite cuts

In short: Weather experts say recent federal cuts raise real risks for weather warnings, but there is not clear evidence that US forecasts have already become broadly less accurate.

What's going on

Concerns are growing about whether Trump administration budget cuts are hurting the country’s ability to forecast weather. Meteorologists interviewed by The New York Times say the situation is not simple. NOAA, the federal agency that includes the National Weather Service, says its evaluations show no demonstrated overall drop in forecast performance so far.

One major worry is fewer weather balloon launches. These balloons carry sensors called radiosondes that measure temperature, humidity, air pressure, and wind as they rise. You can think of them as a moving thermometer and wind meter that checks the sky from the ground up. Reports say some launches were halted or delayed because of staffing shortages, which can leave gaps in the data used to make forecasts.

Staffing is the other big issue. The National Weather Service has lost about 15% of its workforce through layoffs and buyouts. NOAA reportedly had nearly 300 fewer meteorologists and hydrologists in May 2026 than in January 2025. Some local offices may not have enough people for overnight shifts, when balloon releases and early morning forecast work are often done.

Meteorologists also warn about potential impacts on hurricane reconnaissance, including flights that collect data inside storms. However, they describe this as a risk, not proof that forecasts have already worsened nationwide. Forecasting also has backups, including satellites, radar, aircraft reports, surface stations, and ocean buoys, which can help keep many forecasts steady even when one source is reduced.

What to watch

The bigger concern is the long term. Proposed cuts for fiscal year 2026 include eliminating 2,317 NOAA positions, and reducing research that has improved forecasts over decades. Missing data can matter most during fast, local events like tornadoes and flash floods, where small gaps can reduce warning confidence or lead time.

Source: NYTimes