NATO allies reassess Turkey’s role as Ukraine war reshapes security

In short: The war in Ukraine is pushing many NATO policymakers to place more importance on Turkey because it controls key Black Sea sea lanes and can work with both Kyiv and Moscow.

What's going on

Turkey has gained more attention inside NATO since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Analysts point to Turkey’s location, its large military, and its ability to talk to both sides of the war.

A big part of Turkey’s leverage is that it controls the Bosporus and Dardanelles, the narrow sea passages that connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Think of them like a chokepoint bridge for ships. After the invasion, Turkey used the Montreux Convention, a long-standing treaty about these waterways, to limit the movement of some warships.

Turkey has also supported Ukraine in concrete ways, including defense cooperation that has involved drones. At the same time, it has kept communication channels open with Russia. Turkey has used that position to act as a go-between, including helping with the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative and some prisoner exchanges.

This renewed focus is also tied to politics in the US. Reporting suggests that Donald Trump’s skeptical approach to alliances has made NATO members look harder at which partners can provide direct security value, and Turkey is often seen as one of them, even when relations are tense.

What to watch

One open question is whether Turkey will win a formal role in any future ceasefire or “reassurance force” for Ukraine, meaning outside forces that help reduce the risk of fighting restarting. Another is how long Turkey can keep balancing, arming Ukraine while still maintaining significant trade and energy ties with Russia.

Source: NYTimes