Natasha Sarin says AI may boost US growth even as job fears rise

In short: Economist Natasha Sarin says A.I. could lift the U.S. economy over time, but most people mainly see the short-term worry about jobs.

What's going on

Natasha Sarin, a Yale law professor and economist, says A.I. could increase U.S. productivity, which is how much the country produces per hour of work. She argues that higher productivity can lead to faster economic growth and higher living standards in the long run.

She also says the U.S. is currently a leader in investing in A.I. and building the underlying systems. In her view, that leadership could be good for the economy, even though it is still unclear exactly how large the benefits will be.

At the same time, Sarin points to a mismatch in what people hear versus what they experience. The loudest stories right now are about layoffs and companies reorganizing. The broader gains she is talking about are harder to spot day to day, because they show up slowly, like small time savings adding up across many jobs.

Sarin says the key question for workers is whether A.I. will mostly help people do their jobs better or whether it will replace them. She notes that, so far, she does not see strong evidence in the data of large, A.I.-driven job losses, including no clear employment gap between jobs that are more exposed to A.I. tools and those that are less exposed.

What to watch

Sarin also warns the shift is unlikely to be painless, with winners and losers as some tasks become more valuable than others. The big open question is speed, meaning how fast A.I. benefits spread through the economy, and whether workers and workplaces can adapt quickly enough.

Source: NYTimes