Economists look to past tech shifts to understand AI and jobs

In short: Economists are studying past technology waves to better understand how AI might affect jobs, and what can make the transition fairer.

What's going on

Economists say history cannot tell us exactly what AI will do to jobs. But it can show common patterns, like which workers get hit first and how long it can take for people to move into new roles.

The New York Times points to a December 1931 debate, during the Great Depression, when economists worried about workers displaced by dial telephones, sound films, and motor trucks. They felt technology was moving unusually fast and could strain society, a concern that sounds familiar in today’s AI job debate.

Looking further back, research on industrialization suggests new tools can wipe out specific jobs without shrinking employment forever. In Britain, the number of employed people nearly tripled over the century after 1760, even as many traditional crafts declined.

Other work suggests the shift can be slow and uneven. Some workers face retraining costs, and some cannot easily move to where the new jobs are. Another finding summarized by NPR is that job loss from earlier automation often happened during or near recessions, which raises worries that a future downturn could speed up AI-related replacement, though it does not prove it will.

What to watch

Economists note that AI may spread faster than older technologies and it can affect office and professional tasks, not just physical work. Early evidence of economy-wide job displacement is still limited, but the big question is whether schools, employers, and policymakers can help people adjust in time, and how widely the productivity gains are shared (like deciding how to divide a bigger pie).

Source: NYTimes