Research finds early career hiring is down in AI exposed office jobs

In short: New graduates are seeing fewer entry level openings in office jobs where AI can do some beginner tasks, while the overall job market looks steadier for more experienced workers.

What's going on

Several studies suggest early career hiring has weakened since late 2022 in jobs that are “AI exposed,” meaning parts of the work can be done by tools like ChatGPT. ADP Research found that in high AI exposure jobs, employment for 22 to 25 year olds fell about 6% between late 2022 and July 2025. In the same jobs, employment grew 6% to 13% for workers age 30 and up.

The pattern shows up in specific roles. ADP data says early career software developer employment in July 2025 was about 20% below its late 2022 peak. Young customer service employment was nearly 11% below its November 2022 peak, while older workers in those occupations were flat or rising.

Researchers say this does not look like mass unemployment. Instead, AI is changing who gets hired first. Employers can use AI for some starter tasks, like drafting emails, writing a first version of code, or summarizing documents (like having a fast assistant that produces a rough first draft). That can reduce the number of junior “learning” roles where people used to build skills on the job.

What to watch

It is still unclear if this graduating group will face lasting career “scars,” like slower pay growth, or if the market will adjust as new roles appear. Some research finds firms that use AI successfully can grow and hire more overall, which could create opportunities, but the timeline depends on how quickly AI spreads and how the economy performs.

Source: NYTimes