Deglobalization raises costs for countries and boosts demand for tech suppliers

In short: More countries are trying to rely less on global trade, which is raising costs at home but creating new opportunities for suppliers like technology providers.

What's going on

Deglobalization means countries buy and sell less across long distances and try to make more things at home. It is like choosing a backup route for safety instead of the fastest road. The trade system becomes less efficient, and that can slow growth.

In the United States, tariffs are a big part of this shift. Tariffs are extra taxes on imported goods, and they often raise the price of those goods for businesses and shoppers. The Financial Times reports U.S. tariffs had brought in $264.7 billion in revenue as of December 18, up 141% from 2022.

Higher import costs can feed into inflation over time, especially as older inventories run out and companies need to buy new stock at higher prices. The report also points to uncertainty that can delay company investment and hiring. It suggests trade may contribute less to U.S. economic growth in 2026 and 2027 than it did in 2025.

The shift can still be a win for some suppliers. As companies build more local and regional supply chains, spending can rise in areas like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, defense, and technology. The report notes “connector” economies like Mexico and Vietnam may benefit as trade routes and investment shift, even as U.S. China trade reportedly fell about 30% in 2025.

What to watch

One open question is how much AI, robotics, and new data centers can offset these costs by helping workers and factories produce more without pushing prices sharply higher. Another is whether this becomes long lasting “reglobalization,” meaning trade that is more regional and built around reliability rather than the lowest cost.

Source: Financial Times