Assessments say al-Qaeda is weaker but still active as a loose network

In short: New assessments say al-Qaeda is not gone, but it is less centralized and now works more like a spread-out network of regional branches.

What's going on

Commentary around the anniversary of September 11 has raised a broad claim that “the world has lost track of the truth about al-Qaeda.” That statement is too sweeping. But several recent assessments do support a narrower point, the group looks very different than it did in 2001.

The biggest change is that al-Qaeda’s top leadership has been badly weakened. Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011, and Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in 2022. Since then, al-Qaeda has been less visible as a single organization with clear public messaging.

Instead, security assessments describe a more decentralized structure. In plain terms, it operates more like a franchise (local groups using the same brand) than a single company headquarters giving direct orders. Affiliates and supporters are spread across parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, and the “center” appears to have less day-to-day control.

There is also disagreement about who is in charge right now. Multiple reports say Saif al-Adel is widely seen as the de facto leader, meaning the person believed to be leading in practice. But al-Qaeda has not publicly settled the succession question in a clear way.

What to watch

U.S. and UN-linked assessments still describe al-Qaeda as a threat, even if it may be less able than before to plan large, far-reaching attacks. Analysts say the risk has shifted toward staying alive, backing local insurgencies (long-running armed conflicts), and rebuilding in places where it can operate with fewer obstacles, including parts of Afghanistan and some areas in Africa.

Source: NYTimes