AI helps smaller countries and groups challenge bigger military powers

In short: AI is making it easier for smaller countries and groups to pressure big military powers by improving cheap tools like drones and cyber attacks.

What's going on

AI, short for artificial intelligence (computer systems that can spot patterns and make decisions), is changing how power works in conflicts. The basic shift is that some tools that used to need lots of money and people are now cheaper and faster to use.

One example is drones. With AI help, drones can better find targets, avoid obstacles, and coordinate with other drones. That can give a smaller force a way to hit expensive equipment without matching an enemy tank for tank, like using a low cost remote controlled device to damage a much larger machine.

Another area is cyber operations, meaning attacks on computer systems. AI can help attackers move faster, test more options, and create more convincing scams. It can also help spread disinformation, meaning false stories shared to confuse people, at a larger scale and with messages tailored to different groups.

The Russia-Ukraine war is often cited as a real world example. Ukraine has used Western supplied AI enabled tools, including drones and autonomous systems (machines that can act with limited human control), to counter Russia’s larger conventional forces.

Experts still say the biggest powers, especially the United States and China, keep an overall lead because they have more money, chips, data centers, and military infrastructure. But AI can narrow the gap in specific situations.

What to watch

Analysts expect the U.S. and China to keep dominating AI, which can leave smaller countries under pressure to pick sides for key government and defense systems. Watch for smaller states trying to reduce that risk by buying from multiple suppliers, specializing in narrow parts of the AI supply chain, or teaming up with partners so they are not dependent on one superpower.

Source: NYTimes