AI hardware imports helped widen US trade deficit in late 2025

In short: The US trade deficit jumped in late 2025 as companies imported record amounts of AI-related equipment, then narrowed sharply by January 2026 as tariffs and uncertainty cooled buying.

What's going on

In November 2025, the US trade deficit, the gap between what the country buys from abroad and what it sells, widened 94.6% to $56.8 billion. That was the biggest monthly jump in nearly 34 years. The change was driven by a record surge in imported capital goods, especially computers and semiconductors, which are key parts used to build and run AI systems.

Imports were stronger than economists expected, while exports fell sharply. Some economists warned this could weigh on economic growth in late 2025, because more spending was going overseas. Early estimates for overall growth still stayed positive, in the range of about 3% to 5% on an annual basis.

Over the same period, the pattern of trade shifted across countries. The deficit with China fell to a 21-year low in 2025, partly because tariffs pushed companies to change where they buy from. At the same time, deficits widened with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan as some chip-related trade appeared to be routed through those countries.

By January 2026, the deficit narrowed 25.3% to $54.5 billion. Exports rose 5.5% to $302.1 billion, and imports were $356.6 billion. Reports described businesses moving into a “wait-and-see” mode after tariff announcements, like a store delaying big inventory orders when prices might change next week.

What to watch

Trade policy looks set to keep affecting buying decisions, including ongoing Section 232 tariffs and proposals for broader tariffs, alongside court rulings that could unwind some past tariffs. Longer term, the US has also seen advanced technology trade swing from a surplus in 2014 to a large deficit by 2024, showing that demand for high-tech gear, including AI equipment, is growing faster than US exports.

Source: NYTimes